Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Gubrics for Congress?

Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick survived a three-way challenge in the Democratic primary yesterday; winning 39.1% of the vote. Of course, the interesting thing - at least, in my opinion - is that 60.9% of the Democratic primary voters in her district voted against a rather entrenched incumbent.

Congresswoman Kilpatrick now goes on to face a Republican challenger in the November election, Edward Gubrics. In any other election year, the November election would almost be a formality because the district has such a strong Democratic base. However, this time around - with so many voters infuriated with both the Congresswoman and her son - I think that this has become an election that the Republicans can actually win.

I'll assume, for sake of argument, that 100% of those who voted for Congresswoman Kilpatrick come back to vote for her in November. They, however, can't vote twice in November and there won't be a third person in the race to split the vote.

What all of this ultimately means is that if Mr. Gubrics can convince a mere 40% of anti-Kilpatrick Democrats to cross party lines and vote for him instead then that, combined with the small base that the Republicans already have, would be enough to make this a competitive race.

Given the venom that I hear throughout much of the district towards the Kilpatrick family, having 40% of anti-Kilpatrick Democrats vote against her in the general election is nothing if not an obtainable goal. The question is ultimately this: how driven is Mr. Gubrics to get out there and campaign aggressively for the next 90 days until the election?

He doesn't need much money. The anti-Kilpatrick Democrats managed to secure 60.9% of the primary vote while only spending $10,000.

All Edward Gubrics really needs to become the first Republican to win a congressional seat in Detroit in almost 100 years is ability to work his butt off for the next 90 days. He has to appear in front of every audience that will listen to him, and maybe even a few that won't. He has to shake every hand and knock on every door.

More than anything else, he has to offer people a viable alternative to Congresswoman Kilpatrick.

The question is: is he up to it?

We'll find out the answer to that question in 90 days from now.

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